New Investments to the IMF

The IMF has been busy helping countries respond to the economic crisis through financing. Lending commitments are at a record $157 billion. One of the changes, though, has been an easing of the loan conditions that often went along with IMF aid. The IMF has often encouraged political policy changes in exchange for money. Is this a good thing? The tension here is that the countries need the loan money without delay. The IMF is wise to respond quickly to the crisis. That does not mean that the IMF and the borrowing countries, though, are not missing "opportunties" to promote better business and other practices that enhance competitiveness in the longer term. In the end, the borowing countries may still need changes in local laws and governmental frameworks to be competitive. Perhaps now, though, is not the best time to impose such changes given the instability in the borrowing countries already.

Moreover, the IMF's focus may be changing due to the financial crisis with more efforts toward the donor countries. Not only do the larger countries have to keep markets active with developing countries, but they must support the IMF's loan efforts. There does seem to be some action in that respect. Russia, for instance, just announced a new $10 billion commitment to the IMF. Brazil, China (up to $40 billion) and India are also making new investments in the IMF. The additional investments may lead to these countries having a greater say in the business of the IMF and global monetary policy generally. Of course, new commitments are necessary in order for the IMF to continue the financial arrangements with the borrowing countries. The U.S. Senate recently rejected a proposal to eliminate a $180 billion in loan commitments to the IMF. The funding is still pending, though, but has the backing of the White House.

-JSM

IMF annouces "virtual standstill" in global economy

Yesterday's press conference at the IMF, Olivier Blanchard,Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, began with an acknowledgment that he is a bearer of bad news: global output and trade are decreased; growth forecasts are being revised continually downward. As far as outlook, Blanchard reported that the global economy will come to a "virtual standstill" with just 1/2% of growth for 2009. The global financial crisis has taken a toll on different economies in different ways. In terms of developed economies, investor and consumer confidence is lower, making the cost of credit higher and less available. In emerging economies, the effect is different: (1) there is weaker external demand from developed countries for goods; (2) the global credit crunch has limited credit and increased the cost of credit; and (3) there is a decline in cost of goods exported.

The IMF's solution? Simply restoring financial health. Easier said than done, it would seem. The difficulty is one that still eludes us regarding the toxic assets that are still present on the balance sheets of banks. Much is said about the fiscal policies and government stimulus efforts, with a recommendation for proposals that emphasize government spending, rather than tax relief to have the quickest effect. Of course, the long term concern is the ability for governments to reverse the deficits that are created in the near term. Thankfully, the IMF is expecting the United States to return to a low level of growth (1%) by 2010.

The full press conference is available through the IMF.

— JSM